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The purpose of this note is to show how dramatic the Chinese excess capacity is and how hard it will be to narrow the output gap in the near future unless some capacity is shut down. One way of looking at the output gap in China is to measure any excess capacity relative to population.
Read MoreIHH reported decent sales growth across regions. The margins are somewhat weaker due to investments. RM2.3B in December quarter revenues registering 18% growth. EBITDA reads RM614.3M (+5%). Earnings posted 74% YoY growth to RM415.8B on several one-off items and exceptional gains. Full fiscal year 2015 revenues and EBITDA grew by 15% and 10% YoY to RM8.5B and RM2.1B, respectively. Investments are broadly on track to meet targets.
Read MoreIndia is a bright spot in emerging markets attracting interest from global healthcare providers. IHH Healthcare Berhad and Life Healthcare are among the most prolific investors in India. The industry should post 20%+ sales CAGR to 2019. We discuss how acquisitions are changing the industry and prospects for future capex.
Read More2015 was a busy year both with consolidation and capacity investments led by IHH and South African providers. Capex should slow down to allow demand to mature in 2016 but the backlog of investments remains rich. There is little change in industry margins despite investments. Recap of investments, M&A valuations in India, Myanmar and UAE are in the main text.
Read MoreStrong dollar, weaker demand in emerging markets, shrinking repo balance sheets at U.S. institutions and excess capacity in China should force Fed tone down the rate hike rhetoric.
Read MoreOutflows continue with some shuffling. We are not out of the woods by any stretch of imagination; and it is too early to say the worst is over. EM investors will be compelled to trade stocks.
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