Sisecam - Recovery and Restructuring with Risks to the Upside

Sisecam - Recovery and Restructuring with Risks to the Upside

Exposure to both enterprises and households makes glass manufacturing all the more attractive for investors looking to position for recovery in demand. With its diversified client base and margin accretive restructuring project underway, Sisecam should top the list of glassmakers set to benefit from the turnaround.

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Market segmentation scores and portfolio diversification

Market segmentation scores and portfolio diversification

Correlation coefficients or co-variances are too row metrics to depend on for portfolio diversification purposes. This short note promotes segmentation scores methodology as a more robust alternative. especially for funds investing cross-country.  

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GEM Healthcare - IHH Healthcare Berhad reports strong sales, mixed margins in 2015

GEM Healthcare - IHH Healthcare Berhad reports strong sales, mixed margins in 2015

IHH reported decent sales growth across regions. The margins are somewhat weaker due to investments. RM2.3B in December quarter revenues registering 18% growth. EBITDA reads RM614.3M (+5%). Earnings posted 74% YoY growth to RM415.8B on several one-off items and exceptional gains. Full fiscal year 2015 revenues and EBITDA grew by 15% and 10% YoY to RM8.5B and RM2.1B, respectively. Investments are broadly on track to meet targets.

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GEM Financials - National Bank of Greece: Wrong side of Finansbank trade, once again!

GEM Financials - National Bank of Greece: Wrong side of Finansbank trade, once again!

Finansbank is changing hands again - and it's yet another bad deal for the National Bank of Greece. Having bought Finansbank for ~4x book in 2006, they are now selling to QNB for below 1x. What's more, Finansbank is NBG's most profitable business, the absence of which would reduce the group ROE, quite possibly significantly.

Kudos to QNB for acquiring one of the best retail and SME banks in Turkey for a bargain.

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GEM Financials - Turkish banks valuations

GEM Financials - Turkish banks valuations

The market valuation of Turkish banks is currently implying a cost of equity of 12% on average, which we find too low. Turkish risks – inflation, regulatory and political –, as well as global outlook warrant more conservative risk assumptions and hence require higher rate of return. Inflation itself should increase towards 9% mark in 1Q16 to factor in further weakness in currency. Our models factor in an average 14% COE, some 200bp above that implied by the market.

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